GMST reconstructions


GMST reconstructions timeline

 2016  2017  2018



*This project is now finished/concluded*

records 2k image
Our input database: Temperature proxy collection of PAGES2k Consortium (2017).

In 2017, the PAGES2k consortium published a comprehensive collection of temperature sensitive proxy records covering the Common Era.

This collaborative group effort used that PAGES 2k temperature database to produce reconstructions of global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past 2000 years.

GMST reconstructions are difficult to compare because they are based on different reconstruction parameters and input data. We applied a range of state-of-the-art reconstruction techniques of different complexity to reconstruct climate over the last 2000 years.

By running coordinated reconstruction experiments, we aimed to maximize comparability across the results. The index reconstructions are used to identify and quantify features of global mean temperature change over the last 2000 years that stand up to a wide range of reconstruction choices and approaches. Temperature variability and trends at different time-scales are quantified and compared to climate model simulation and reconstructions of global external forcing.

Our output was a set of GMST data covering the Common Era including uncertainty estimates based on ensembles, thus directly serving for future data model comparison efforts.

> GMST reconstructions scientific goals

> GMST reconstructions people

> GMST reconstructions paper


Learn more and participate

This group is now closed. Queries can be emailed to project coordinator Raphael Neukom (see GMST reconstructions people).

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